Prospect Property Information
To measure supply of apartments and commercial development, City of Prospect developed a model of the local apartment construction market based on building completions and past and future planning approvals. This model has been used to estimate revenue and population growth in the City. The three growth scenarios are:
- Low Growth 80 apartments per annum
- Medium Growth 130 apartments per annum
- High Growth 180 apartments per annum.
In the first half on 2020, 37 new dwelling approvals were received in the Urban Corridor Zone which is consistent with the Low Growth scenario. This slowdown in development can be attributed to business confidence during COVID. Nevertheless, the pipeline of development and the desire of developers to build and people to buy in Prospect remains strong. This is reinforced by three positive results from analysis of property approvals, projected completions, and apartment sales in Prospect:
1. Average lodgement value for the entire financial year is above $100 million.
These lodgements are likely to impact on completions in 2023. It is also noted that there were higher than typical lodgements both before and after the lockdown period.
Figure 1. Lodge DA Values in Prospect by month 2019 – 2020
2. Completion rates of apartments in Prospect in 2020 is estimated to be 168 dwellings which is above our initial estimates. While the decline in 2023 in Figure 2 could be made up in the next six months of approvals. As such the COVID period could be a temporary development dip. In any case the four years of development projections below from 2020 – 2023 are consistent with the Medium Growth scenario.
Figure 2. Estimated Apartment Completions by calendar year
3. Prospect has one of the strongest apartment markets of all inner ring Councils, representing 24% of all sales. Figure 3 (CoreLogic data) shows the total apartment sales in the last 3 years around inner metro Adelaide. While Charles Sturt Council (including the huge development project at Bowden) represents 41% of the inner metro apartment market.
Figure 3. Inner Suburban Apartment Sales – Excluding Adelaide City.